Mitigating Climate Change Threats to Critical Energy Infrastructure

Energy systems across the OSCE region are increasingly interconnected and exposed to a complex and evolving range of risks. Climate-related hazards can damage critical energy infrastructure, affect energy supply and demand, and threaten energy security. At the same time, rising energy demand, supply-chain disruptions, infrastructure constraints, and changing geopolitical and trade dynamics can place additional pressure on energy systems and amplify existing risks. These challenges are particularly pronounced in Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, and Central Asia (the “OSCE Target Regions”).

Although awareness of these challenges has grown and considerable technical expertise exists across the regions, national decision-makers need stronger analytical capabilities and practical tools to support long-term energy security and resilient energy transition planning. The OSCE project responds to this need by supporting energy decision-makers and other relevant stakeholders in 14 countries across the OSCE Target Regions. Launched in 2023, the project aims to help them assess and mitigate climate-related and other systemic risks affecting their energy systems. 

During the first phase (2023-2025), the OSCE established an analytical foundation for understanding where and how climate change may affect energy infrastructure across the OSCE Target Regions over the coming decades. This included:

• Risk assessment and data access: Providing high-resolution climate projections for Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe, Mediterranean.
• Decision-support tools: Developing the OSCE Energy Security and Risks Platform, an interactive planning tool to help users assess and anticipate potential climate impacts on critical energy infrastructure. 
• Capacity-building: Training hundreds of energy-sector stakeholders to use climate models and data, conduct vulnerability assessments, and develop resilience strategies.  

The next phase, Energy Systems Analysis and Capacity Building for Long-term Regional Energy Security Planning (2026-2028), builds on this foundation. Implemented in partnership with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), it broadens the focus from climate-related analysis to the resilience of interconnected energy systems facing multiple, potentially compounding risks. The phase is organized around three complementary workstreams that aim to strengthen national institutions’ ability to assess vulnerabilities, anticipate future risks, and develop plans to address them.

1. Advanced analytical framework: The project will develop and apply energy system models and analytical tools at national and regional levels. These models will help assess future vulnerabilities and explore how energy systems may respond to different scenarios. By stress-testing energy systems against a range of potential shocks, the project will help participating States identify emerging risks, understand how risks may interact, and build an evidence base for energy security and transition planning.
2. Strengthened institutional capacities: Building on existing technical expertise in the regions, the project will strengthen institutions’ capacity to use analytical tools for long-term energy security and transition planning. Through regional missions, hands-on workshops, and technical training, national stakeholders will be supported in evaluating energy-system scenarios and developing shared approaches and strengthening transboundary cooperation.
3. Enhanced decision-support tools and transboundary coordination: The project will translate scientific findings into accessible tools and policy-relevant recommendations. It will upgrade the OSCE Energy Security and Risks Platform into a web-based decision-support application, providing access to data, interactive visualizations and newly modelled energy security scenarios. These enhancements will help decision-makers explore emerging risks and opportunities relevant to energy security, resilience, and the energy transition. In parallel, the project will establish a Regional Energy Resilience Expert Network (RE2N) to support cross-border cooperation, knowledge exchange, and expert coordination beyond the project period.