Story
The summer our energy systems hit their limit. What comes next?
- Date:
- Source:
- Office of the Co-ordinator of OSCE Economic and Environmental Activities
- Fields of work:
- Economic activities, Environmental activities
- Focus area:
- Energy security
Summer 2026 was the hottest many of us have ever lived through — a season of record temperatures, shrinking rivers, and energy systems pushed to the brink. Across Europe and beyond, extreme heat and drought exposed just how vulnerable critical energy infrastructure has become in a rapidly warming world.
In July, water levels on the Danube fell so sharply that long‑submerged WWII wrecks resurfaced near Prahovo, Serbia, preventing regular commercial ship travel. The same low water levels forced Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant, normally responsible for nearly half of the country’s electricity, to scale back operations because the river could no longer provide sufficient cooling water. Hydropower output across the Alps dropped significantly, with Austria producing only 51% of its usual generation and Switzerland 26%. Serbia’s Djerdap 1 hydropower plant fell to just 20% of capacity. Similar patterns unfolded globally: heatwaves strained grids from California to Jordan, drought reduced reservoir levels across North Africa, and wildfires disrupted transmission lines in multiple regions.
These are not isolated incidents, but early signals of a systemic challenge to how billions of people access energy. This reality demands that those responsible for securing our energy future act now, using data, foresight and planning to future‑proof the systems we rely on every day.
An unstable energy supply starts with affecting households, but continues with endangering economic stability, environmental safety and national security.
When energy systems reach their limits
Energy insecurity hits people unevenly. During heatwaves, lower income households struggle to afford cooling, older residents face higher health risks, and families worry about keeping fridges, medical devices, and childcare essentials running during outages. Vulnerable populations are left to endure extreme indoor heat as cooling costs surge. This summer, more than 14,000 people died as a consequence of the heat in Germany – smashing records from previous years.
An unstable energy supply starts with affecting households, but continues with endangering economic stability, environmental safety and national security. In a world of interconnected energy systems, disruptions can quickly spill across borders, affecting various markets and grids.
The 2026 heatwave is just one example among many of how extreme temperature changes can quickly set off a chain reaction; temperatures that soared above 40°C demanded increased air-conditioning across the board. Drops in river levels decreased hydropower output and limited cooling water for thermal and nuclear plants.
Industry slowed down as electricity supply became less stable, and wholesale prices spiked under soaring demand. Emergency protocols needed to be activated across energy infrastructure, underscoring the strain on national security. And the fallout did not stop at borders: cooling‑water constraints in Hungary and Slovakia, for example, meant less available electricity to export and a higher need to import. Supply chains were disrupted across multiple countries, and electricity flow across borders was only possible thanks to regional balancing mechanisms.
And while summer’s heat brings its own significant challenges, winters offers little relief. In January 2026, a historic cold snap triggered a gas‑supply crunch across Central Europe, creating a regional energy‑security shock. Households, schools and public facilities struggled with insufficient heating just as prices surged and fuel‑delivery logistics were disrupted by frozen infrastructure and transport delays. What began as a weather event quickly became a multi‑sector crisis, exposing how vulnerable communities and essential services are when our energy systems come under extreme stress.
Functioning as an anticipatory risk system, it gives energy decision-makers the ability to look decades ahead and understand how climate trends could reshape the performance, reliability, and security of their energy systems.
Preparing for what’s ahead
Heatwaves, cold snaps, and severe weather will keep pushing our systems in ways we can’t fully control. But we can reduce how hard those shocks hit us by investing now in stronger grids, diversified energy sources, and smarter planning. Taking action early means our communities, economies, and public services are better protected when the next extreme season arrives.
With this in mind, the OSCE built the Energy Security and Risks Platform – an interactive tool that shows where energy systems are most vulnerable to future climate conditions. Functioning as an anticipatory risk system, it gives energy decision-makers the ability to look decades ahead and understand how climate trends could reshape the performance, reliability, and security of their energy systems. The geospatial tool uses a curated sub-set of 60 climate indices to provide high resolution data on future climate risks to existing energy systems, including technologies such as hydropower, solar, wind, thermal, transmission networks and the energy demand side.
The platform looks at factors like rising temperatures, changing rainfall, drought, wind patterns, and sunlight, and shows how these changes will affect different types of power plants by the 2050s. It highlights “hotspots” where several problems stack up at once, and where countries may need to have a closer look at their existing infrastructure or rethink long‑term plans.
Through the dashboard, decision-makers might be able to answer questions such as “Where will our hydropower systems face drought?” or “Where should we build our next solar panels and wind turbines?”
The platform also maps energy‑demand projections. It analyzes how demand is likely to shift under temperature extremes, from increased cooling needs during heatwaves to higher heating requirements during cold spells.
A new foundation for energy security
Our energy security depends on understanding how the climate will shape the physical limits of our energy systems in the future. To face the challenges that a warming planet is inevitably bringing, we need to be prepared. It will require better planning for grid stability, smarter investment in renewables, strong cross-border co-operation when neighbours face shared risks, and more resilient infrastructure built for the climate of the future. The OSCE’s new platform gives countries the foresight they need to stay ahead of these changes — and to keep the lights on in a warming world.
